This post is a relatively simple one. I am predicting that the following will happen during the first two years of the Trump administration.
1. Foreign policy in this administration will be determined by where Mr. Trump owns property. The United States has never had a sitting President who own personal property and real estate in another country. Mr. Trump has hotels and golf courses in Panama, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, India, Ireland, Dubai (UAE) and Uruguay.
If one of these facilities is attacked/ destroyed by terrorist, will he send the U.S. military in to protect his personal assets and ignore the national security integrity of the host country? My prediction is yes he will. Any attack on his properties will be considered by him as a personal affront. How do we know this? We simply look at his tweets on Twitter since the election and how he views every single negative comment about him as a personal attack. He will lose it completely when terrorist attack one of his properties (…and they will just to provoke him).
Therefore, I predict Mr. Trump will use the U.S. military as his personal property police when his real estate and personal property are attacked.
2. China will not overlook Mr. Trump’s phone call with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan and his subsequent threat to overturn 40 years of the U. S. “one China” policy. China has claimed the South China Sea as part of its territorial waters. Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and the United States want the South China Sea to remain international waters. In the last 2 years, the U.S. has sent ships to the South China Sea in the name of “Freedom of Navigation.” In November 2015, two U. S. aircraft flew surveillance over the islands that China claims in these waters. The planes were verbal warned off. But in the last 30 days, China has flown nuclear capable aircraft over the region and has installed surface to air missiles on disputed islands in the waters.
The Chinese culture is one of the oldest in world. They will not negotiate via Twitter and they will not waiver on the concept that Taiwan is a Chinese province and not an independent nation.
Therefore, I predict China will test Mr. Trump early by engaging with gunfire any U. S. aircraft or ship in the South China Sea area. The engagements will continue until Mr. Trump publicly acknowledges there is only one China and that it controls access to the South China Sea.
3. Back in December 2016, President Obama placed economic sanctions on Russia for its interference in the recent American elections. President Trump has made no bones about how he feels about Russia and discounts any Russian interference in his election. Russia, of course, has denied any interference and Mr. Trump has chosen to believe them rather than his 17 separate intelligence agencies. In January 2017, President Obama provided 4,000 U.S. troops as a seed to continuous NATO troop deployments in Poland. Poland has welcomed the NATO troops as a way to ensure its border security. Meanwhile, Russia has criticized this deployment as threat to its security.
Earlier in 2016, the U. S. placed the Aegis missile system in Romania as part of a NATO “anti-missile shield” in Europe despite Russian protest. The U.S. and NATO have claimed that the missile system is necessary as a deterrent from Iran’s missile program. Russia says the missiles threaten its security. This is probably the easiest prediction I’ll make.
I predict that Mr. Trump will remove all of the economic sanctions put in place by President Obama, including those because of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, despite vigorous Congressional disapproval and remove U. S. troops from the NATO rotation in Poland. The missiles in Romania will stay for the moment, but don’t be surprised if the U.S. pulls out of the NATO “anti-missile shield” program before the end of 2018.
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I promise to come back no later than 15 December 2018 (unless I’m dead, in which case this site won’t even exist) and see how accurate these predictions were. I suspect I’ll be batting a thousand.