With the Academy Awards to be broadcast this weekend, I’m about to go out on a limb and make some Oscar predictions.
First of all, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is a giant, but select club with 6,000 members. While it is great to think that the awards are presented to the artist who is judged to have done the best work in that year, sometimes the award is given to correct the award not being given to an artist for previous work.
Confused? Let me explain. Denzel Washington wins a 2001 Oscar award for the horrible film, Training Day, because (in my opinion) he did not win one for his 1997 film Hurricane or his 1992 Malcolm X. Want another example? How about Whoopi Goldberg winning for Ghost (1990) because she lost in The Color Purple (1985). This rationale on the part of the Academy will be the reason that Christopher Plummer wins this year and Penelope Cruz will lose (because she won last year in the same category).
Best Picture
– Should win: Up.
– Will win: The Hurt Locker. Up is nominated in a separate Animated Feature category and should win there. The Hurt Locker is directed by Kathryn Bigelow who will win Best Director because she is not Penny Marshall and she is not James Cameron.
Best Leading Actor
– Should win: Jeff Bridges.
– Will win: Jeff Bridges. Bridges didn’t win in 1984 for Starman or for a great performance in 1971’s The Last Picture Show. The Academy will reward him for his body of work with this award.
Best Leading Actress
– Should win: Sandra Bullock.
– Will win: Sandra Bullock. Bullock’s performance was the best of her career. Period. Meryl Streep again demonstrated her versatility in Julie &Julia, but she already has two awards. The Academy will give Bullock her first.
Best Supporting Actress
– Should win: Mo’Nique.
– Will win: Maggie Gyllenhaal. Gyllenhaal is the reason that Bridges will win the best actor award. Mo’Nique probably gave the best performance of her life in Precious, but she will be derailed by the movie, Crazy Heart.
Best Supporting Actor
– Should win: Christoph Waltz.
– Will win: Christopher Plummer. The Academy owes Plummer for his long unrecognized body of work and will reward him accordingly. Waltz’ performance was the best in an otherwise, unimpressive field.
Best Director
– Should win: Lee Daniels.
– Will win: Kathryn Bigelow. Daniels did a fantastic job getting Oscar nominated performances out of two new talented, but unknown actresses (one who was in her first film). He deserves the win for Precious. However, the Academy will give the award to Bigelow as a way to put a stick in the eye of her former husband, James Cameron who is nominated for Avatar. Cameron is unpopular in Hollywood. On Oscar night, he will find out just how unpopular he is.
Anyway, that’s my picks and I’m stuck with them until next Monday morning.